Friday, September 30, 2011

Cool And Breezy Today

The forecast for Lafayette today and tonight from the Indianapolis NWS...

Today: A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 59. Breezy, with a north northwest wind between 20 and 22 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. 

Tonight: A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. North northwest wind between 9 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Severe Drought Conditions Over For Indiana

There remains a small area of western Indiana that still is under a moderate drought. Otherwise, across the board improvement in the past 7 days. Below is the updated drought monitor map for Indiana (through September 27) and 7 day total precipitation through yesterday morning.


Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Coolest High Temperature Since...

The high temperature only reached 57º yesterday at LAF. This is the first sub 60º high temp since May 15th. The normal high temp for September 27th is 73º.

As for the month of September so far, despite the first 3 days having temps in the 90's, the month is running -1.7º below normal. Total precipitation is at 3.57", a surplus of 1.19".

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Drought Pretty Much Over For Indiana

The Indianapolis NWS office is saying the summer drought conditions have ended in Indiana due to the recent heavy rains in much of the state.

Here's the link to the story:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=73334&source=0 


Rainfall totals for the past 7 days, through yesterday morning.

Monday, September 26, 2011

Cool Image Of The Current Midwest Storm

Here's a satellite view of the current cut-off low in the Midwest. Click image to enlarge.

Rainfall Totals For The Past 2 Days

Rainfall totals for the past 2 days (9/24 and 9/25) at LAF and local CoCoRahs observers.

Purdue Airport: 1.26"
Lafayette 2.2 NE: 1.29"
Lafayette 0.5 S: 1.43"
Lafayette 2.2 S: 1.45"
West Lafayette 5.1 WSW: 1.98"

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Heavy Rainfall? NAM Model Thinks So...

Here's one weather computer model's (12z NAM) forecast for total rainfall from now through Tuesday evening. Though it is on the heavy side compared to other guidance...but they all still show amounts over 1.00".

Rainfall Totals So Far...Rainfall For Today & Tonight

0.50" of rain has been recorded at LAF since yesterday (through 9AM this morning). More rain is in the forecast for today and tonight, with totals possibly approaching an additional 2.00" of rain.
Here's the forecast for Lafayette for today and tonight from the Indianapolis NWS office...

Today: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 64. South southeast wind between 6 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. 

Tonight: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then showers likely. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 55. East southeast wind between 6 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. 

Saturday, September 24, 2011

7 Day Local Forecast Results

The Indianapolis NWS takes the honors for the best 7 day forecast with the latest contest (Sept 17-23). Results below...



Sep 16, 2011
WLFI-TV
IND NWS
Weather.com
AccuWeather.com
GFS MOS
ACTUAL

FORECAST
+/-
FORECAST
+/-
FORECAST
+/-
FORECAST
+/-
FORECAST
+/-
LAF
SATURDAY
75
+3
69
-3
72
0
69
-3
71
-1
72
SUNDAY
80
+9
75
+4
78
+7
77
+6
76
+5
71
MONDAY
81
+11
78
+8
75
+5
78
+8
79
+9
70
TUESDAY
82
+4
78
0
78
0
78
0
77
-1
78
WEDNESDAY
84
+5
75
-4
78
-1
76
-3
77
-2
79
THURSDAY
81
+11
72
+2
71
+1
72
+2
73
+3
70
FRIDAY
83
+15
70
+2
73
+5
72
+4
74
+6
68
AVERAGE
80.9
+8.3
73.9
+1.3
75.0
+2.4
74.6
+2.0
75.3
+2.7
72.6


Friday, September 23, 2011

Cool And Wet The Next 5 Days

The forecast for Lafayette from the NWS is calling for a chance of rain for the next 5 days. Temperatures to remain cool through the period as well. Normal high temperatures this time of the year range from 73 to 75º.

Today: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Calm wind becoming west northwest between 6 and 9 mph. 

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. 

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 63. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph. 

Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph. 

Sunday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 65. South wind between 5 and 8 mph. 

Sunday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. 

Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67. 

Monday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. 

Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 70. 

Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. 

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Rainfall For The Next 5 Days

Here's the precipitation outlook from HPC for the next 5 days. This would further lead to improvement in the drought areas of Indiana.

Drought Monitor

Some improvement in the drought conditions for Indiana with the latest update. The moderate and severe areas decreased, note the middle two columns compared to last week.

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Warm Today, Cooler Tomorrow...30 Day Average Temp Departures

The mid 70's of today will give way to mid 60's tomorrow...and then pretty much stay in the 60's to around 70 for the next several days. Normal high temperatures for Lafayette for the next seven days are in the mid 70's.

Here's the 30 day running average temperature departures for the Midwest (click image to enlarge):

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Thinking About Winter

The Climate Prediction Center recently updated their December-February temperature and precipitation forecasts. Here's their latest thoughts. Lafayette right in between the cooler than normal probabilities and wetter than normal probabilities.


Foggy Morning

Thick fog has set up across the area, along with central and northern IL, northern IN, and a good chunk of MI. It should be burning off soon though. Temps today should be in the mid 70's.

Monday, September 19, 2011

Summer Temperature Stats Across Indiana

Recently I've read claims that this past summer was the hottest since 1936 or 1949. When we look at the major climatological sites across Indiana, plus a local COOP, well that isn't true at all. The funny thing is that last summer was warmer than this one. The numbers don't lie...

Summer Average Temperatures (June 1-August 31)

Lafayette (LAF)
2010: 76.1º
2011: 75.8º

West Lafayette 6NW COOP
2010: 74.8º
2011: 74.2º

Bloomington (BMG)
2010: 75.9º
2011: 75.0º

Evansville (EVV)
2010: 80.2º
2011: 79.0º

Fort Wayne (FWA)
2010: 75.3º
2011: 75.0º

Indianapolis (IND)
2010: 78.1º
2011: 77.6º

Muncie (MIE)
2010: 74.6º
2011: 74.4º

South Bend (SBN)
2010: 73.4º
2011: 73.3º

Terre Haute (HUF)
2010: 76.5º
2011: 75.6º

Statewide, Summer 2010 ranked as the 6th warmest on record...Summer 2011 ranked as the 20th warmest on record.

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Change Of Pace This September

11 out of the first 17 days of September have had below normal temperatures at LAF. Though I guess you could make a case that the "trend" started on the 10th of August (14 out of the last 22 days of Aug had below normal temps). Anyway, a different "feel" from the seemingly consistent hot days of this past July.

Saturday, September 17, 2011

7 Day Local Forecast Results

Here are the results for the 7 day forecasts for Lafayette from various sources. The Indianapolis NWS and AccuWeather.com had the best forecasts. We'll start another one as seen below.



Sep 9, 2011
WLFI
IND NWS
Weather.com
AccuWeather
GFS MOS
ACTUAL

FORECAST
+/-
FORECAST
+/-
FORECAST
+/-
FORECAST
+/-
FORECAST
+/-
LAF
SATURDAY
80
+5
76
+1
78
+3
78
+3
77
+2
75
SUNDAY
82
+1
80
-1
77
-4
80
-1
79
-2
81
MONDAY
84
-3
84
-3
86
-1
83
-4
83
-4
87
TUESDAY
86
-1
85
-2
91
+4
82
-5
78
-9
87
WEDNESDAY
87
+15
72
0
71
-1
71
-1
69
-3
72
THURSDAY
82
+18
69
+5
67
+3
67
+3
66
+2
64
FRIDAY
82
+17
68
+3
74
+9
68
+3
69
+4
65
AVERAGE
83.3
+7.4
76.3
+0.4
77.7
+1.8
75.6
-0.3
74.4
-1.5
75.9



Sep 16, 2011
WLFI-TV
IND NWS
Weather.com
AccuWeather.com
GFS MOS
ACTUAL

FORECAST
+/-
FORECAST
+/-
FORECAST
+/-
FORECAST
+/-
FORECAST
+/-
LAF
SATURDAY
75

69

72

69

71


SUNDAY
80

75

78

77

76


MONDAY
81

78

75

78

79


TUESDAY
82

78

78

78

77


WEDNESDAY
84

75

78

76

77


THURSDAY
81

72

71

72

73


FRIDAY
83

70

73

72

74


AVERAGE
80.9

73.9

75.0

74.6

75.3