December 31st Almanac

Records for December 31st

Purdue Airport - LAF
High temperature: 64º in 2004
Low temperature: -14º in 1976
Precipitation: 0.94" in 1978
Snowfall: 1.9" in 1969

West Lafayette 6 NW COOP
High temperature: 64º in 1965
Low temperature: -14º in 1983
Precipitation: 1.32" in 1936
Snowfall: 6.0" in 1969

Warmth Continues

Today and tomorrow will be have high temperatures getting close to or exceeding 50º. While this is certainly above normal, it's not unusual...despite what you hear from talking heads in the media. Take last year at this time for example. After a very snowy and cold month, the last two days of December and first day of January were way above normal. Also consider we had a snow pack of 10"+ to erode before that torch.

12/30/2010: 52º
12/31/2010: 60º
1/1/2011: 57º

December 29th Almanac

Records for December 29th

Purdue Airport - LAF
High temperature: 64º in 1984
Low temperature: -12º in 1983
Precipitation: 0.62" in 2003
Snowfall: 0.6" in 1961

West Lafayette 6 NW COOP
High temperature: 68º in 1984
Low temperature: -6º in 1983
Precipitation: 0.97" in 1990
Snowfall: 3.0" in 1902

December 28th Almanac

Records for December 28th

Purdue Airport - LAF
High temperature: 68º in 1984
Low temperature: -2º in 2000
Precipitation: 1.43" in 1948
Snowfall: 4.0" in 1983

West Lafayette 6 NW COOP
High temperature: 67º in 2008
Low temperature: -20º in 1924
Precipitation: 1.28" in 2008
Snowfall: 5.0" in 1915

Snow Totals

Looks like a range from 1.5 to 3.0" of snow fell this morning in the area.

1.7" at WLFI
2.6" on the south side of Lafayette
3.0" in Frankfort

As it stands right now, I have 5.7" of total snow for the season. Sort of amazing considering how bad of a pattern we've been in since November.

Snow Tomorrow?

Looks like there's a good chance of snow developing overnight, lasting through late tomorrow morning. One of the computer models spits out 2-4" of snow for Lafayette (image below).

December 17th Almanac

Records for December 17th

Purdue Airport - LAF
High temperature: 59º in 2006
Low temperature: -5º in 1945
Precipitation: 0.74" in 1957
Snowfall: 3.0" in 1951

West Lafayette 6 NW COOP
High temperature: 64º in 1984
Low temperature: -9º in 1989
Precipitation: 1.77" in 1929
Snowfall: 4.0" in 2000

Spring In December

The temperature and dewpoint are at springlike levels this morning, both in the upper 50's. Alas, the temperature should begin to fall as we move through the afternoon.

Still no changes in the extended range for this warm and essentially snowless December.

Warm December Continues

This December, so far, has been the complete opposite from the past four editions. Cold and snow have been lacking and that looks to continue for the next week to 10 days...if not longer. As for a white Christmas, statistically the odds are typically not in our favor...outside of a fluke, this one looks to be a green Christmas for us.

For today, unseasonably warm air will rule with temperatures reaching the middle 50's. A good chance of rain and even some thunderstorms exist today through tomorrow morning. The extended forecast is for more warmth and rainfall for early next week.

December 12th Almanac

Records for December 12th

Purdue Airport - LAF
High temperature: 62º in 1991
Low temperature: 5º in 2000
Precipitation: 1.14" in 1972
Snowfall: 0.6" in 1988

West Lafayette 6 NW COOP
High temperature: 61º in 1946
Low temperature: -8º in 1977
Precipitation: 1.05" in 1996
Snowfall: 2.0" in 1963

Cold Temps This Morning

The low temperature, as of 7:00AM, has dropped to 14º at LAF. This is the coldest min temperature since February 10th when we got down to -10º.

High temperatures today will struggle to reach 30º. The cold looks short-lived though, as we should warm back up next week with 50's possible by Thursday. So far, this December is a far cry from the cold and snowy conditions that were present last December.

Snow Tonight/Overnight

Looks like our first measurable snow of this December could happen tonight/overnight. It doesn't look like a big deal, as the range of snowfall from the weather models is from a couple tenths to an inch at best. Taking an average of all the guidance leads me to a call of 0.1 to 0.5" for Lafayette....enough to make it look like winter anyway, but barely.

EDIT: the latest model guidance just came in and gives us nothing. So I may too bullish in my amounts. If there is such a thing with tenths of an inch amounts...

December 7th Almanac

Records for December 7th

Purdue Airport - LAF
High temperature: 64º in 1966
Low temperature: -7º in 1977
Precipitation: 1.91" in 1966
Snowfall: 1.0" in 1983

West Lafayette 6 NW COOP
High temperature: 70º in 1998
Low temperature: -6º in 1977
Precipitation: 1.30" in 1927
Snowfall: 2.5" in 1909

Wet Year At The West Lafayette COOP

Through the end of this November, 47.59" of precipitation has been recorded at the West Lafayette 6 NW COOP. Using the longterm averages, where data goes back to 1901, that is 12.31" above average.

Here are the top 10 wettest years on record at the WL COOP:

1) 55.60" - 1927
2) 54.61" - 1909
3) 50.45" - 1957
4) 50.42" - 1929
5) 49.32" - 1990
6) 47.59" - 2011 (through November 30)
7) 47.27" - 1926
8) 47.04" - 1993
9) 45.70" - 1902
10) 45.43" - 1907

December 5th Almanac

Records for December 5th

Purdue Airport - LAF
High temperature: 69º in 2001
Low temperature: 3º in 2005
Precipitation: 0.74" in 1967
Snowfall: 9.0" in 1977

West Lafayette 6 NW COOP
High temperature: 66º in 1998
Low temperature: 0º in 2005
Precipitation: 1.95" in 1916
Snowfall: 4.0" in 1977

November 2011 Stats At LAF

Average mean temperature: 47.9º (+5.1º)
Average high temperature: 56.3º (+5.0º) 
Average min temperature: 39.5º (+5.2º)
Highest max temperature: 72º on the 14th
Lowest max temperature: 39º on the 29th
Highest min temperature: 56º on the 13th
Lowest min temperature: 27º on the 11, 17, 18, and 30th

Total precipitation: 5.61" (+2.64")
Greatest 24 hour precipitation: 1.95" on the 28-29th
Days with a trace or more precipitation: 16
Days with 0.10" or more precipitation: 15
Days with 0.50" or more precipitation: 4

December 2nd Almanac

Records for December 2nd

Purdue Airport - LAF
High temperature: 73º in 1982
Low temperature: 3º in 1966
Precipitation: 2.29" in 1967
Snowfall: 2.6" in 1964

West Lafayette 6 NW COOP
High temperature: 68º in 1970
Low temperature: 2º in 1942
Precipitation: 0.76" in 1967
Snowfall: 1.5" in 1955

November Precipitation Totals Across Indiana

Here are the November precipitation totals and departures for several of the official sites across Indiana.

Lafayette: 5.61" +2.64"

Bloomington: 3.58" -0.36"
Evansville: 8.32" +3.99"
Fort Wayne: 6.09" +3.00"
Goshen: 4.22" +1.10"
Indianapolis: 4.87" +1.17"
Indianapolis Eagle Creek: 4.09" +0.39"
Muncie: 6.42" +2.97"
North Webster - NWS office: 6.19" +2.69"
Shelbyville: 5.96" +2.23"
South Bend: 3.46" +0.19"
Terre Haute: 6.12" +2.28"

Snowfall Totals From Yesterday

I measured 2.8" of snow on the east side of Lafayette. Seems there was a fairly tight gradient, relatively speaking, with less in West Lafayette and more snow as you went east.

Other local reports from CoCoRaHS and COOP observers:
Lafayette 2.2 S: 2.3"
Frankfort 7.9 WSW: 2.5"
Camden 4.9 NNE: 1.0"
Kokomo 3 SW: 5.0"

A couple more photos I took from yesterday's snowfall.

Snow Photos

A couple of photos I snapped of the snow accumulating, from about 30 minutes ago.

Update On The Snowfall

The Winter Weather Advisory is still in effect for Lafayette and surrounding areas. Sleet has begun to mix in with the rain here, so the transition to snow is trying to take place. That being said, I think we'll fall on the low end of the predicted 2-4" of snow...if we even reach 2". Places to the east including Kokomo, Marion, etc. look like the jackpot area with 4"+ as they'll be in the main band the longest with cold enough temperature profiles.

Winter Weather Advisory For Lafayette

The Indianapolis NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Lafayette for 2-4" of snow by early tomorrow morning, with locally higher amounts possible. Text of the advisory below:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
338 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

...ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE
THIS MORNING INTO EASTERN OHIO TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...COLDER AIR
WILL BE PULLED AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING. AREAS NORTH OF A
CRAWFORDSVILLE TO NOBLESVILLE TO NEW CASTLE LINE MAY SEE TWO TO
FOUR INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM LAFAYETTE EAST THROUGH FLORA AND
KOKOMO.

INZ021-028>031-035>042-049-291645-
/O.NEW.KIND.WW.Y.0006.111129T1800Z-111130T0600Z/
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE
338 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: ROADS MAY BECOME SLIPPERY TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON
  AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES MAY BE RAPIDLY REDUCED
  AT TIMES WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS.

* ACCUMULATIONS: SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY
  EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
  FROM LAFAYETTE EAST THROUGH FLORA AND KOKOMO.

* TIMING: RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON WITH THE
  HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OCCURRING FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
  EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

Snow Tuesday Night/Early Wednesday?

It's just one model's interpretation, but if it's correct, 2-4" of snow could fall in and around Lafayette Tuesday night/early Wednesday (snow accumulation map below). It's a pretty tricky situation, so I wouldn't get too excited...or too mad yet. Stay tuned.

Wet November Continues

3.66" of rainfall has been recorded at LAF so far this November, with more on the way. Another storm will be arriving tonight and stick around through early Wednesday. Model projections at this point are for at least 1.00" of additional precipitation, with a few approaching or exceeding 2.00". There's also a chance that the rain could turn over to snow at some point, but the details of that are a little fuzzy at this stage. More on this later.

For reference, below are the top 10 wettest Novembers at the West Lafayette 6 NW COOP (data since 1901).

1) 8.71" - 1985
2) 6.89" - 1992
3) 6.56" - 1927
4) 5.41" - 1921
5) 5.23" - 2007
6) 5.07" - 1966
7) 4.88" - 1934
8) 4.79" - 1935
9) 4.78" - 1942
10) 4.71" - 1968

Rainfall Through 3:00PM Today

0.68" of rainfall has been recorded at the Purdue Airport for this storm system, through 3:00PM today.

That brings the monthly total to 3.59".

Here's are some of the recent total precipitation numbers for the past four Novembers...

2010: 3.50"
2009: 2.69"
2008: 1.48"
2007: 4.86"

The normal 1981-10 November precipitation at LAF is 2.97".

November 26th Almanac

Daily records for November 26th

Purdue Airport - LAF
High temperature: 64º in 2006
Low temperature: 7º in 1977
Precipitation: 1.35" in 1985
Snowfall: 1.4" in 1975

West Lafayette 6 NW COOP
High temperature: 66º in 1927
Low temperature: 5º in 1977
Precipitation: 1.81" in 1958
Snowfall: 2.5" in 1902

Weekend Forecast...Warm, Rain, Cool, Snow?

The forecast for Lafayette from the National Weather Service...

Today: Sunny, with a high near 59. South southwest wind between 10 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. 

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. South southwest wind around 11 mph. 

Saturday: Showers, mainly after 1pm. High near 56. South southwest wind between 11 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. 

Saturday Night: Rain showers before 1am, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Low around 34. West wind between 13 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. 

Sunday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Breezy, with a west wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Rainfall Totals From Yesterday

Here are the rainfall totals from yesterday's storm for the official reporting sites in Indiana.

Muncie: 1.17"
South Bend: 1.15"
Evansville: 1.12"
Fort Wayne: 1.07"
Lafayette: 0.98"
Shelbyville: 0.97"
Indianapolis: 0.86"
Indianapolis Eagle Creek: 0.67"
Terre Haute: 0.62"
Bloomington: 0.55"

Thanksgiving Day Forecast

Looks like no weather issues to contend with for Thanksgiving travel, Wednesday through Friday. The Lafayette forecast from the NWS...

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 52. Northwest wind between 6 and 10 mph. 

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 34. West southwest wind between 5 and 7 mph. 

Thanksgiving Day: Sunny, with a high near 57. South southwest wind between 6 and 11 mph. 

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 42. 

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 59. 

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.

Rainy Tuesday

The forecast for Lafayette from the NWS...

Tuesday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 57. East northeast wind between 8 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. 

Tuesday Night: A chance of showers, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. North northwest wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. 

November 20th Almanac

Records for November 20th

Purdue Airport - LAF
High temperature: 66º in 1992
Low temperature: 13º in 1969
Precipitation: 1.57" in 1956
Snowfall: 0.4" in 1981

West Lafayette 6 NW COOP
High temperature: 74º in 1942
Low temperature: 7º in 1914
Precipitation: 1.25" in 1991
Snowfall: 1.5" in 1964

Warm Novembers Lead To Warm Winters?

This November has been well above normal so far, and looks to continue through the end of the month. So are there any clues that a warm November leads to a warmer winter? Well it's not a lock, but according to the data I ran for the West Lafayette COOP (which begins in 1901) the tendency is for the following winters to be warmer than normal (+1.1º or greater departure). Of course there are exceptions as well.

The chart below is all of the Novembers that were +1.1º or warmer, versus the longterm average, since 1901. Data for 1949-1952 is missing for the WL COOP. Click the chart to enlarge.

Weekend Forecast

Looks nice, other than being a little breezy and some chances of showers on Sunday. As usual, your Lafayette forecast from the NWS...

Today: Sunny, with a high near 49. Breezy, with a south southwest wind between 17 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. 

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 36. South southwest wind between 13 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. 

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 55. Breezy, with a south wind between 14 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. 

Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 47. Breezy, with a south wind 17 to 20 mph becoming west. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph.

Sunday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 53. North northwest wind between 8 and 14 mph. 

November 17th Almanac

Records for November 17th

Purdue Airport - LAF
High temperature: 73º in 1971
Low temperature: 16º in 2005
Precipitation: 1.03" in 1993

West Lafayette 6 NW COOP
High temperature: 72º in 1971
Low temperature: 3º in 1959
Precipitation: 1.21" in 1921

Back To Reality

Or should I say, back to temperatures more common for mid November in central Indiana. The next three days look to be seasonably cool before a warm up for the weekend. The forecast for Lafayette from the NWS...

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 42. North northwest wind around 14 mph. 

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 25. West northwest wind between 6 and 9 mph. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 39. West northwest wind between 7 and 15 mph. 

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 28. Southwest wind between 6 and 13 mph. 

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 49. Breezy, with a south southwest wind between 15 and 22 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. 

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 37. 

Local Storm Reports From Yesterday

As relayed to the NWS.

0335 PM     TSTM WND GST     WEST LAFAYETTE          40.44N 86.91W
11/14/2011  E60.00 MPH       TIPPECANOE         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            55-60 MPH WIND GUST ACCOMPANIED BY PENNY SIZED HAIL.

0347 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     LAFAYETTE               40.41N 86.87W
11/14/2011                   TIPPECANOE         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD NEARING THE GROUND NEAR THE TIPPECANOE MALL
            ALONG US 52.

0357 PM     HAIL             FLORA                   40.54N 86.52W
11/14/2011  E0.25 INCH       CARROLL            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0417 PM     HAIL             3 S BURLINGTON          40.44N 86.39W
11/14/2011  E0.25 INCH       CARROLL            IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORT AT SR 29 AND CO RD 750 S.

0417 PM     HAIL             2 NW NEW RICHMOND       40.21N 87.01W
11/14/2011  E0.88 INCH       TIPPECANOE         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO ESTIMATED WINDS OF 50 MPH. REPORT MADE AT 525 W AT
            TIPPECANOE AND MONTGOMERY COUNTY LINE.

0429 PM     HAIL             4 N LINDEN              40.25N 86.90W
11/14/2011  E0.88 INCH       TIPPECANOE         IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORT AT SR 28 JUST SOUTH OF ROMNEY.

0447 PM     HAIL             1 S FRANKFORT           40.27N 86.51W
11/14/2011  E1.00 INCH       CLINTON            IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT THE CLINTON COUNTY EMA OC OFFICE

0448 PM     HAIL             FRANKFORT               40.28N 86.51W
11/14/2011  E1.75 INCH       CLINTON            IN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY AMBULANCE DRIVER AT THE
            INTERSECTION OF JACKSON AND WABASH.

Tornado Watch For Central Indiana Until 9:00PM

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 879
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   145 PM EDT MON NOV 14 2011
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
          INDIANA
          WESTERN OHIO
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL 900
   PM EDT.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
   TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
   DECATUR ILLINOIS TO 70 MILES EAST OF FORT WAYNE INDIANA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   DISCUSSION...INCIPIENT SURFACE-BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   INVOF MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WHERE PRESSURE
   FALLS ARE FOCUSING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  HERE...AREA VAD AND RUC
   OBJECTIVE DATA INDICATE VERY STRONG LOW- AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH
   WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A FEW
   TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.  GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR AND ANTICIPATED FAST STORM MOTIONS...A TORNADO OR TWO COULD BE
   STRONG AND POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACKED.
   EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
   ADVANCING THROUGH SRN IL WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
   AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
   GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
   MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26050.

Severe Weather Threat For Today

The Storm Prediction Center has Lafayette and much of central Indiana under a slight risk for severe weather today. Damaging winds are the greatest threat for the Lafayette area, while a tornado threat exists from Indianapolis on southeastward.

Here's the link to the day one outlook from SPC: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Updated tornado probabilities from SPC.

Wind Advisory For Today

The Indianapolis NWS has issued a Wind Advisory for today.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
403 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM EST...

.A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM
WILL CREATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH...GUSTING TO 45 MPH.

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-131715-
/O.CON.KIND.WI.Y.0006.111113T1300Z-111114T0000Z/
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...
SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...
SEYMOUR
403 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING.

* WINDS: SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS: WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...
  ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SECURE ANY OUTSIDE
  FURNITURE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

November 12th Almanac

Records for November 12th.

Purdue Airport - LAF
High temperature: 74º in 2010
Low temperature: 15º in 1986
Precipitation: 1.62" in 1992
Snowfall: 3.0" in 1959

West Lafayette 6 NW COOP
High temperature: 76º in 2010
Low temperature: 9º in 1911
Precipitation: 1.32" in 1949
Snowfall: 4.0" in 1921

November 11-12, 1911 Cold Front

Today is the 100th year anniversary of one of the strongest cold fronts, and resultant temperature plunge,  to ever hit the Midwest. Though locally, the front didn't reach until early on Nov 12th. Here are a few links to NWS office write ups of the great cold front...

St. Louis, MO NWS

Springfield, MO NWS

Kansas City, MO NWS

Below are the high/low temperatures at the local observers for November 12, 1911. Unfortunately, the high temp on the 12th is missing from the West Lafayette COOP.

WL COOP: Nov 12: M/9º

Crawfordsville Pwr Plant: Nov 12: 70º/13º

Logansport Cicott St COOP: Nov 12: 73º/16º

Kokomo 3WSW COOP: Nov 12: 70º/13º

First Snow Flakes?

Yeah, it's possible we could see our first snow flakes of the season today. It's not a lock either, but is certainly possible as showers rotate through our area late this morning and through the afternoon. If it does happen, it will be no big deal of course (no accumulation or anything).

Looking ahead, it looks like the roller coaster of weather will continue for the next 7 days. More warmth by the weekend before another storm approaches next week, and then colder weather will follow.

7 day forecast for Lafayette from the NWS...

Today: A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 41. West wind between 11 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. West northwest wind between 8 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. 

Veterans Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 51. Southwest wind between 7 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. 

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 37. South southwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. 

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 58. South southwest wind between 10 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. 

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a low around 50.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a high near 61.

Sunday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. 

Monday: A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61. 

Monday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. 

Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 58. 

Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 50. 

Springlike Weather Continues

It's still warm and humid this morning here in Lafayette. I even heard of a crack of thunder with this morning's rains. Meanwhile, a snowstorm is underway to our west and north, as parts of Iowa, Wisconsin, and the U.P. of Michigan are under winter advisories and warnings. The highest amount I've found so far this morning was 6.4" of snowfall measured in Winterset, IA as of 4AM CT...no doubt an appropriate name. Snowfall totals exceeding 6" are possible for northern WI and the U.P. of Michigan by later today.

Link to NWS offices: http://www.weather.gov/

Cooler weather is on its way for later today here, but unseasonable warmth will return by the weekend. And it looks to continue for quite awhile thereafter...

Rainfall From Yesterday...Rainfall Expected For Tonight

0.35" of rainfall was recorded at LAF yesterday. More showers and possibly thunderstorms are expected tonight and overnight through early Wednesday. Below is one model's estimate on the next round of rainfall (about 0.50" expected locally, more to the northwest, less to the south).

Warm, Rainy, Windy

The forecast for Lafayette for the next 3 days courtesy of the Indianapolis NWS...

Today: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 61. South southwest wind between 7 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. 

Tonight: Showers likely before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. South wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. 

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 69. South wind between 8 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. 

Tuesday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 53. South wind between 13 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. 

Wednesday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 55. Breezy, with a west southwest wind between 16 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. 

November 6th Almanac

Records for November 6th

Purdue Airport - LAF
High temperature: 77º in 1975
Low temperature: 21º in 1973
Precipitation: 1.16" in 1951
Snowfall: 4.0" in 1951

West Lafayette 6 NW COOP
High temperature: 75º in 1975
Low temperature: 17º in 1991
Precipitation: 1.53" in 1941

November 5th Almanac

Records for November 5th.

Purdue Airport - LAF
High temperature: 76º in 1975
Low temperature: 18º in 1995
Precipitation: 1.04" in 1948

West Lafayette 6 NW COOP
High temperature: 78º in 2003
Low temperature: 16º in 1991
Precipitation: 1.41" in 1935
Snowfall: 1.0" in 1966

Weekend Forecast...Looks Nice

The weekend forecast for Lafayette from the Indianapolis NWS...

Today: Sunny, with a high near 53. Northeast wind around 10 mph. 

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 32. East wind around 7 mph. 

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 58. South southeast wind between 6 and 9 mph. 

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 39. South wind between 8 and 11 mph. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. Breezy, with a south wind between 14 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. 

Historical November Stats

Historical Novembers stats from the West Lafayette 6 NW COOP (since 1901).

Warmest Novembers
51.3º - 1931
51.1º - 1909
49.0º - 1902
48.8º - 2001
47.6º - 1927

Coolest Novembers
32.7º - 1976
33.2º - 1996
34.1º - 1995
34.5º - 1959
34.6º - 1911

Wettest Novembers
8.71" - 1985
6.89" - 1992
6.56" - 1927
5.41" - 1921
5.23" - 2007

Driest Novembers
0.06" - 1904
0.18" - 1917
0.81" - 1976
0.89" - 1939
0.90" - 1953

Warmest daily max temp: 78º (1/1974*, 2/1999, 3/1961, 5/2003, 19/1930)
Coolest daily max temp: 15º (27/?, 30/1976*)
Warmest daily min temp: 64º (8/?)
Coolest daily min temp: -3º (28/1930)

November 2nd Almanac

Records for November 2nd.

Purdue Airport - LAF
High temperature: 75º in 1964
Low temperature: 21º in 2006
Precipitation: 1.24" in 1982
Snowfall: 1.0" in 1966

West Lafayette 6 NW COOP
High temperature: 78º in 1999
Low temperature: 19ª in 1996
Precipitation: 2.12" in 1992

October 2011 Stats At LAF

Average mean temperature: 55.0º (+0.7º)
Average high temperature: 67.6º (+2.5º)
Average min temperature: 42.5º (-1.0º)
Highest max temperature: 86º on the 7th
Lowest max temperature: 47º on the 20th
Highest min temperature: 55º on the 13th
Lowest min temperature: 29º on the 30th

Total precipitation: 2.49" (-0.40")
Greatest 24 hour precipitation: 1.49" on the 19-20th
Days with a trace or more precipitation: 13
Days with 0.10" or more precipitation: 6
Days with 0.50" or more precipitation: 1

Halloween Weather

The forecast for Lafayette for today from the NWS...

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 56. West wind between 6 and 8 mph. 

First Minimum Temperature Below 30 Degrees At LAF

The temperature bottomed out at 29º this morning at the Purdue Airport, the first of the Fall season. So when is the typical first date of the first sub 30º min temp at LAF? Here's some stats...

Data from the Purdue University Airport since 1964

Earliest sub 30º min temp: September 23, 1995

Latest sub 30º min temp: November 14, 1975

Coldest first sub 30º min temp: 23º on October 21, 1974 and November 1, 1993

First sub 30º min temp by date range...
September 30 or earlier: 1 (1995)
October 1-10: 13 (1964, 1968, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1985, 1987, 1988, 1989, 2000, 2001, 2004)
October 11-20: 9 (1967, 1972, 1976, 1977, 1991, 1992, 1996, 2002, 2006)
October 21-31: 10 (1965, 1966, 1969, 1974, 1982, 1990, 1994, 1997, 2008, 2011)
November 1-10: 12 (1971, 1973, 1983, 1984, 1986, 1993, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2007, 2009, 2010)
November 11-20: 2 (1975, 2005)

October Snowstorms

In light of the snowstorm that is underway in the Northeast U.S., and no the big cities (DC, PHI, NYC) of the Northeast are not going to see a lot of accumulation...the better chances reside west of the I-95 corridor, we'll harken back to the October 19-20, 1989 snowstorm that hit Indiana.

Locally, there is no other event in October that compares. Matter of fact, looking back through the COOP records that exist back to 1901, it is pretty rare to see 0.1" or greater snowfall in October in Lafayette (5 times in 110 years or once every 22 years). Below are some of the snowfall totals with the October 19-20, 1989 snowstorm.

Lafayette 8 S COOP: 9.5"
Purdue Airport: 6.7"
West Lafayette 6 NW COOP: 6.0"

Kokomo 3WSW COOP: 10.5"
Indianapolis International Airport: 9.3"
Frankfort Disposal Plant: 9.0"
Rochester COOP: 9.0"
Jamestown Utilities COOP: 9.0"
Marion 2N COOP: 9.0"
South Bend WSO: 8.8"
LaGrange 1S COOP: 8.6"
Fort Wayne - FWA: 8.0"
Whitestown COOP: 8.0"
Hartford City 4 ESE COOP: 7.6"
Delphi 2 N COOP: 7.0"
Knightstown 2ENE: 6.7"
Columbia City COOP: 6.0"

Snowfall totals map (credit to Baroclinicity here): http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/239657-the-fluke-of-the-century/

Weekend Forecast

Looks like a nice pleasant weekend upcoming. The forecast for Lafayette from the Indianapolis NWS office...

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 53. Calm wind. 

Tonight: Patchy frost after 5am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. South southwest wind between 3 and 6 mph. 

Saturday: Patchy frost before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 52. West northwest wind between 5 and 11 mph. 

Saturday Night: Patchy frost after 5am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 34. West northwest wind at 5 mph becoming south. 

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers after 2pm. Patchy frost before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 54. South wind between 7 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. 

Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. 

NOAA Winter Outlook

Recently, NOAA released their winter outlook for the United States. For Lafayette's interests, we're close to the below normal temperature probabilities and firmly inside the above normal precipitation probabilities.

Here's the link to the story: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20111020_winteroutlook.html

So Much For The Thunderstorms

Well, the thunderstorms never made it here overnight. As for today, it is very mild to start off the day with temps in the low 60's as of 8:00AM...should be another warm one for Lafayette, though not to the extent of yesterday. Showers return to the forecast for tonight via the NWS forecast...

Tonight: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 44. North northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. 

Thunderstorms Tonight

There's a good chance of thunderstorms tonight/overnight as a cold front sweeps through the area. Some small hail and isolated higher wind gusts are possible with the line of storms. Below is a snippet from the Storm Prediction Center's Day One Severe Outlook...

SCTD SFC OR NEAR SFC-BASED STORMS MAY FORM BY EARLY EVE OVER CNTRL
AND NRN IL IN ZONE OF STRONGEST LOW LVL ASCENT NEAR SFC LOW. 
RELATIVELY COOL MID LVL TEMPS AND STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD
LAYER FLOW MAY YIELD SMALL TO MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IN SOME STORMS. 
40 KT MEAN LWR TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ALSO COULD POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLD
STRONG SFC GUSTS.  THE TSTMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO IND AND OH
OVERNIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED LOW PROBABILISTIC SVR THREAT.

Work Week Outlook...Warm To Start, Cooler Finish

Looks like a nice warm start to the week before rain and then cooler weather takes over. Here's the forecast for Lafayette from the Indianapolis NWS...

Today: Sunny, with a high near 64. West northwest wind between 8 and 13 mph. 

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 45. West southwest wind around 9 mph. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Breezy, with a south southwest wind between 11 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. 

Tuesday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Southwest wind between 9 and 13 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. 

Wednesday: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 58. West southwest wind 7 to 11 mph becoming north northwest. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. 

Wednesday Night: Showers likely, mainly before 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. 

Thursday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. 

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 34. 

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 53. 

Autumn Rainfall To Date...2010 vs 2011

Quite a turnaround this Autumn versus the last one in terms of rainfall. Last Fall was very dry as moderate to severe drought conditions, along with burn bans being in effect, existed for much of Indiana. Below are the comparisons between last year and this year for several sites in Indiana.

Precipitation totals from September 1 through October 22 for both years.

Bloomington (BMG)
2010: 1.18"
2011: 7.86"

Evansville (EVV)
2010: 0.64"
2011: 9.78"

Fort Wayne (FWA)
2010: 1.65"
2011: 8.09"

Indianapolis (IND)
2010: 1.33"
2011: 8.01"

Lafayette (LAF)
2010: 2.28"
2011: 5.97"

Muncie (MIE)
2010: 1.76"
2011: 7.39"

Shelbyville (GEZ)
2010: 1.16"
2011: 8.63"

South Bend (SBN)
2010: 2.41"
2011: 7.59"

Terre Haute (HUF)
2010: 1.79"
2011: 6.64"

First Sub 32º Min Temperature Of The Fall At LAF

As of 8:00AM this morning, the low temperature at LAF hit 30º. This is the first 32º or lower reading of the Fall. Looking back at the prior 4 years, here's the dates of the first 32º or lower min temp at the Purdue Airport...

2010: November 3rd...31º
2009: October 18th...31º
2008: October 28th...30º
2007: November 6...32º

3 Consecutive Days With High Temps In The 40's

The last 3 days have featured high temperature in the 40's at LAF. This is the first it has happened in October since...October 29-31, 2001.

Three consecutive days with sub 50º high temperatures in October at LAF, since 1964, has occurred in 7 other Octobers...

Oct 9-11 and 25-28, 1967
Oct 19-23 and 25-28, 1976
Oct 25-29, 1980
Oct 22-24, 1981
Oct 24-26 and 28-30, 1988
Oct 18-20, 1989
Oct 29-31, 1993

Rainfall Totals Through 8:00AM

Storm total rainfall, from October 18th to 8:00AM today, from the Purdue Airport and CoCoRaHS observers across Tippecanoe County.

LAF - Purdue Airport: 1.98"
Lafayette 2.2 S: 2.40"
Lafayette 2.2 NE: 2.09"
Otterbein 2.3 SE: 1.79"
West Lafayette 5.1 WSW: 1.83"

Storm Continues Today

Through 7:00AM this morning, 1.93" of rainfall has been measured at LAF with this storm. Light rain is expected to continue today.

A Wind Advisory is still in effect for Lafayette and all of central Indiana until 6:00PM this evening. Wind gusts of 40-45MPH are likely.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
321 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.A STRONG AUTUMN STORM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING
AS IT TRACKS FROM KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY.

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-201530-
/O.CON.KIND.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-111020T2200Z/
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...
SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...
SEYMOUR
321 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* TIMING...THE MOST INTENSE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY THIS
  MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY.
  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CONTROL.
  SMALL TREE BRANCHES MAY BREAK OFF. UNSECURED ITEMS LEFT
  OUTSIDE WILL BE BLOWN AROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH...OR GUSTS
TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES WHICH SHOULD USE
EXTRA CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.