Saturday, November 19, 2011

Warm Novembers Lead To Warm Winters?

This November has been well above normal so far, and looks to continue through the end of the month. So are there any clues that a warm November leads to a warmer winter? Well it's not a lock, but according to the data I ran for the West Lafayette COOP (which begins in 1901) the tendency is for the following winters to be warmer than normal (+1.1º or greater departure). Of course there are exceptions as well.

The chart below is all of the Novembers that were +1.1º or warmer, versus the longterm average, since 1901. Data for 1949-1952 is missing for the WL COOP. Click the chart to enlarge.


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