Cool And Breezy Today

The forecast for Lafayette today and tonight from the Indianapolis NWS...

Today: A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 59. Breezy, with a north northwest wind between 20 and 22 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. 

Tonight: A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. North northwest wind between 9 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Severe Drought Conditions Over For Indiana

There remains a small area of western Indiana that still is under a moderate drought. Otherwise, across the board improvement in the past 7 days. Below is the updated drought monitor map for Indiana (through September 27) and 7 day total precipitation through yesterday morning.

Coolest High Temperature Since...

The high temperature only reached 57º yesterday at LAF. This is the first sub 60º high temp since May 15th. The normal high temp for September 27th is 73º.

As for the month of September so far, despite the first 3 days having temps in the 90's, the month is running -1.7º below normal. Total precipitation is at 3.57", a surplus of 1.19".

Drought Pretty Much Over For Indiana

The Indianapolis NWS office is saying the summer drought conditions have ended in Indiana due to the recent heavy rains in much of the state.

Here's the link to the story:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=73334&source=0 


Rainfall totals for the past 7 days, through yesterday morning.

Cool Image Of The Current Midwest Storm

Here's a satellite view of the current cut-off low in the Midwest. Click image to enlarge.

Rainfall Totals For The Past 2 Days

Rainfall totals for the past 2 days (9/24 and 9/25) at LAF and local CoCoRahs observers.

Purdue Airport: 1.26"
Lafayette 2.2 NE: 1.29"
Lafayette 0.5 S: 1.43"
Lafayette 2.2 S: 1.45"
West Lafayette 5.1 WSW: 1.98"

Heavy Rainfall? NAM Model Thinks So...

Here's one weather computer model's (12z NAM) forecast for total rainfall from now through Tuesday evening. Though it is on the heavy side compared to other guidance...but they all still show amounts over 1.00".

Rainfall Totals So Far...Rainfall For Today & Tonight

0.50" of rain has been recorded at LAF since yesterday (through 9AM this morning). More rain is in the forecast for today and tonight, with totals possibly approaching an additional 2.00" of rain.
Here's the forecast for Lafayette for today and tonight from the Indianapolis NWS office...

Today: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 64. South southeast wind between 6 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. 

Tonight: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then showers likely. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 55. East southeast wind between 6 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. 

7 Day Local Forecast Results

The Indianapolis NWS takes the honors for the best 7 day forecast with the latest contest (Sept 17-23). Results below...

Sep 16, 2011	WLFI-TV		IND NWS		Weather.com		AccuWeather.com		GFS MOS		ACTUAL
	FORECAST	+/-	FORECAST	+/-	FORECAST	+/-	FORECAST	+/-	FORECAST	+/-	LAF
SATURDAY	75	+3	69	-3	72	0	69	-3	71	-1	72
SUNDAY	80	+9	75	+4	78	+7	77	+6	76	+5	71
MONDAY	81	+11	78	+8	75	+5	78	+8	79	+9	70
TUESDAY	82	+4	78	0	78	0	78	0	77	-1	78
WEDNESDAY	84	+5	75	-4	78	-1	76	-3	77	-2	79
THURSDAY	81	+11	72	+2	71	+1	72	+2	73	+3	70
FRIDAY	83	+15	70	+2	73	+5	72	+4	74	+6	68
AVERAGE	80.9	+8.3	73.9	+1.3	75.0	+2.4	74.6	+2.0	75.3	+2.7	72.6

Cool And Wet The Next 5 Days

The forecast for Lafayette from the NWS is calling for a chance of rain for the next 5 days. Temperatures to remain cool through the period as well. Normal high temperatures this time of the year range from 73 to 75º.

Today: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Calm wind becoming west northwest between 6 and 9 mph. 

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. 

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 63. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph. 

Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph. 

Sunday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 65. South wind between 5 and 8 mph. 

Sunday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. 

Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67. 

Monday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. 

Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 70. 

Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. 

Rainfall For The Next 5 Days

Here's the precipitation outlook from HPC for the next 5 days. This would further lead to improvement in the drought areas of Indiana.

Drought Monitor

Some improvement in the drought conditions for Indiana with the latest update. The moderate and severe areas decreased, note the middle two columns compared to last week.

Warm Today, Cooler Tomorrow...30 Day Average Temp Departures

The mid 70's of today will give way to mid 60's tomorrow...and then pretty much stay in the 60's to around 70 for the next several days. Normal high temperatures for Lafayette for the next seven days are in the mid 70's.

Here's the 30 day running average temperature departures for the Midwest (click image to enlarge):

Thinking About Winter

The Climate Prediction Center recently updated their December-February temperature and precipitation forecasts. Here's their latest thoughts. Lafayette right in between the cooler than normal probabilities and wetter than normal probabilities.

Foggy Morning

Thick fog has set up across the area, along with central and northern IL, northern IN, and a good chunk of MI. It should be burning off soon though. Temps today should be in the mid 70's.

Summer Temperature Stats Across Indiana

Recently I've read claims that this past summer was the hottest since 1936 or 1949. When we look at the major climatological sites across Indiana, plus a local COOP, well that isn't true at all. The funny thing is that last summer was warmer than this one. The numbers don't lie...

Summer Average Temperatures (June 1-August 31)

Lafayette (LAF)
2010: 76.1º
2011: 75.8º

West Lafayette 6NW COOP
2010: 74.8º
2011: 74.2º

Bloomington (BMG)
2010: 75.9º
2011: 75.0º

Evansville (EVV)
2010: 80.2º
2011: 79.0º

Fort Wayne (FWA)
2010: 75.3º
2011: 75.0º

Indianapolis (IND)
2010: 78.1º
2011: 77.6º

Muncie (MIE)
2010: 74.6º
2011: 74.4º

South Bend (SBN)
2010: 73.4º
2011: 73.3º

Terre Haute (HUF)
2010: 76.5º
2011: 75.6º

Statewide, Summer 2010 ranked as the 6th warmest on record...Summer 2011 ranked as the 20th warmest on record.

Change Of Pace This September

11 out of the first 17 days of September have had below normal temperatures at LAF. Though I guess you could make a case that the "trend" started on the 10th of August (14 out of the last 22 days of Aug had below normal temps). Anyway, a different "feel" from the seemingly consistent hot days of this past July.

7 Day Local Forecast Results

Here are the results for the 7 day forecasts for Lafayette from various sources. The Indianapolis NWS and AccuWeather.com had the best forecasts. We'll start another one as seen below.

Sep 9, 2011	WLFI		IND NWS		Weather.com		AccuWeather		GFS MOS		ACTUAL
	FORECAST	+/-	FORECAST	+/-	FORECAST	+/-	FORECAST	+/-	FORECAST	+/-	LAF
SATURDAY	80	+5	76	+1	78	+3	78	+3	77	+2	75
SUNDAY	82	+1	80	-1	77	-4	80	-1	79	-2	81
MONDAY	84	-3	84	-3	86	-1	83	-4	83	-4	87
TUESDAY	86	-1	85	-2	91	+4	82	-5	78	-9	87
WEDNESDAY	87	+15	72	0	71	-1	71	-1	69	-3	72
THURSDAY	82	+18	69	+5	67	+3	67	+3	66	+2	64
FRIDAY	82	+17	68	+3	74	+9	68	+3	69	+4	65
AVERAGE	83.3	+7.4	76.3	+0.4	77.7	+1.8	75.6	-0.3	74.4	-1.5	75.9

Sep 16, 2011	WLFI-TV		IND NWS		Weather.com		AccuWeather.com		GFS MOS		ACTUAL
	FORECAST	+/-	FORECAST	+/-	FORECAST	+/-	FORECAST	+/-	FORECAST	+/-	LAF
SATURDAY	75		69		72		69		71
SUNDAY	80		75		78		77		76
MONDAY	81		78		75		78		79
TUESDAY	82		78		78		78		77
WEDNESDAY	84		75		78		76		77
THURSDAY	81		72		71		72		73
FRIDAY	83		70		73		72		74
AVERAGE	80.9		73.9		75.0		74.6		75.3