Mesoscale Discussion...Watch Likely

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1914
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1217 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL IL...IND...WRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 091717Z - 091815Z
   
   AN INCREASING THREAT OF DMGG WIND AND HAIL IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
   AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   17Z VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A CU FIELD BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FROM
   NEAR CHICAGO JUST NW OF SPRINGFIELD...ALONG A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
   ANALYZED THROUGH WRN MI/SWWD JUST WEST OF SPRINGFIELD IL...INTO
   CNTRL KS. USING PREFRONTAL OBS AND MODIFYING THE UPSTREAM 12Z
   DAVENPORT SOUNDING...LITTLE TO IF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS.
   CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
   IN COMBINATION WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...IN
   ADDITION TO ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT CAN DEVELOP. 17Z WV IMAGERY
   ALSO SUGGESTS HINTS OF A WEAK VORT MAX NEAR THE MO/IA/IL
   BORDER...WHICH LENDS CERTAINTY TO INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN
   IL/NRN IND. RECENT HI-RES MODEL IMAGERY GENERALLY SUPPORTS
   INITIATION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. COLD TEMPERATURES
   ALOFT...LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN
   THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND STRONG WNWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
   THREAT OF DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP/INTENSIFY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 08/09/2011