Monday, June 27, 2011

Using A Computer Model For A 7 Day Forecast

We're going to use a global computer model (GFS-MEX MOS) to see how well it does with temperatures during a 7 day period. This is just a guide mind you, and shouldn't be used literally by meteorologists or anyone...but it's just an example of the tools used in forecasting. Note that days 5-7 usually skew towards climo, or what is normal for this time of year, with this model. I'll post the 0z run and 12z runs (when it comes in this afternoon), and we'll follow the progress as the week goes on. Temperatures bolded below.


LAFAYETTE           
 KLAF   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   6/27/2011  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 MON  27| TUE 28| WED 29| THU 30| FRI 01| SAT 02| SUN 03| MON 04 CLIMO
 X/N  82| 67  83| 57  84| 61  86| 70  92| 73  91| 65  86| 62  86 63 84
 TMP  79| 70  76| 62  78| 65  80| 74  87| 76  84| 68  80| 66  80      
 DPT  73| 65  57| 57  56| 59  63| 67  70| 71  68| 64  63| 62  63      
 CLD  OV| OV  PC| CL  CL| CL  CL| CL  PC| PC  PC| CL  PC| CL  PC      
 WND  10|  8  11|  7   6|  4   9|  6  10|  7   9|  8   8|  6   8      
 P12  54| 77   5|  7   5|  7   5| 12  18| 35  30| 34  21| 26  21999999
 P24    |     77|      7|     15|     18|     51|     46|     38   999
 Q12   2|  5   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   1|  1    |             
 Q24    |      4|      0|      0|      0|      3|       |             
 T12  84| 73   0|  3   0| 10  19| 21  29| 45  40| 30  16| 19  19      
 T24    | 87    |  3    | 11    | 31    | 59    | 48    | 32
LAFAYETTE           
 KLAF   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   6/27/2011  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      TUE 28| WED 29| THU 30| FRI 01| SAT 02| SUN 03| MON 04|TUE CLIMO
 N/X  64  84| 60  84| 62  85| 69  93| 74  91| 66  87| 65  86| 66 63 84
 TMP  67  78| 63  77| 66  80| 73  88| 76  84| 70  81| 68  81| 70      
 DPT  63  56| 60  59| 62  67| 66  72| 72  71| 65  64| 64  65| 65      
 WND   7   8|  5   6|  5   8|  6  12|  6   8|  6   8|  5   8|  5      
 P12   9   5|  4   4|  4   9| 34   7| 14  18| 19  19| 24  25| 24999999
 P24      12|      7|     13|     37|     20|     32|     40|      999
 Q12   0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       0|      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |         
 T12  18   0|  3   4| 10  19| 45  37| 34  21| 26  27| 22  37| 27      
T24        |  3    | 10    | 53    | 55    | 41    | 36    | 46 

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