Forecast "Contest" Wrap Up

All of these 7 day forecasts were from June 18th. Granted it's just one forecast from one day, but you get the idea. I'm a little surprised how most of them were too warm for high temps on a consistent basis...some way too warm. Anyway, the results below.


June 18
WLFI: 92º/75º (+10º/+7º)
NWS IND: 84º/71º (+2º/+3º)
TWC: 87º/69º (+5º/+1º)
AccuWx: 85º/69º (+3º/+1º)
Actual: 82º/68º

June 19th
WLFI: 93º/73º (+12/+6)
NWS: 83º/67º (+2/0)
TWC: 83º/67º (+2/0)
AccuWx: 88º/72º (+7/+5)
Actual: 81º/67º

June 20th
WLFI: 93º/73º (+15/+7)
NWS: 88º/72º (+10/+6)
TWC: 86º/72º (+8/+6)
AccuWx: 87º/71º (+9/+5)
Actual: 78º/66º

June 21st
WLFI: 91º/65º (+4/-6)
NWS: 89º/72º (+2/+1)
TWC: 91º/72º (+4/+1)
AccuWx: 87º/70º (0/-1)
Actual: 87º/71º

June 22nd
WLFI: 87º/62º (+7/-6)
NWS: 83º/65º (+3/-3)
TWC: 85º/66º (+5/-2)
AccuWx: 83º/65º (+3/-3)
Actual: 80º/68º


June 23rd
WLFI: 87º/61º (+16/-2)
NWS: 77º/57º (+6/-6)
TWC: 76º/58º (+5/-5)
AccuWx: 76º/60º (+5/-3)
Actual: 71º/63º


June 24th
WLFI: 84º/59º (+16/-3)
NWS: 74º/NA (+6/NA)
TWC: 74º/59º (+6/-3)
AccuWx: 79º/59º (+11/-3)
Actual: 68º/62º


Using the high temps only, which honestly who cares about the overnight low temps in the summer, here are the total degrees errors and the average error for the period.
June 18-24
WLFI: +80 (+11.4 per day)
NWS: +31 (+4.4 per day)
TWC: +35 (+5.0 per day)
AccuWx: +38 (+5.4 per day)

Comparing 4 Different Weather Forecasts

I jotted down weather forecasts for Lafayette from 4 different sources: WLFI, the National Weather Service in Indianapolis, the Weather Channel, and AccuWeather on the evening of June 17th to see they would do with a 7 day forecast. I'm just using temperatures for this "contest". Here are the forecasts for yesterday and the actual numbers, plus the margin of error for each in ( ).

June 18
WLFI: 92º/75º (+10º/+7º)
NWS IND: 84º/71º (+2º/+3º)
TWC: 87º/69º (+5º/+1º)
AccuWx: 85º/69º (+3º/+1º)
Actual: 82º/68º


Forecasts for today (again from 6/17):
WLFI: 93º/73º
NWS IND: 83º/67º
TWC: 83º/67º
AccuWx: 88º/72º