Heat Wave

By the loose definition of 3 consecutive days of 90º+ defining a heat wave, we're going to have one beginning today or tomorrow. Temperatures on Thursday and Friday look especially hot, possibly reaching the upper 90's on both days. It'll be a relatively short blast of heat though, as temperatures look to cool off by Sunday and then on through the middle of next week.

Possible high temperatures for the next 4 days...
Today: 86-90º
Thursday: 94-98º
Friday: 94-98º
Saturday: 88-92º

Summer 2011 vs Summer 2010

Statistics for LAF. Monthly numbers consist of average high temps...average low temps...average temps. I will update this year's final numbers on Thursday.

JUNE
2010: 84.3º.....64.8º.....74.6º
2011: 82.7º.....63.4º.....73.1º

JULY
2010: 86.8º.....66.9º.....76.8º
2011: 90.0º.....69.8º.....79.9º

AUGUST
2010: 87.7º.....66.0º.....76.8º
2011: 85.6º.....63.3º.....74.4º (through 8/29)

SUMMER
2010: 86.3º.....65.9º.....76.1º
2011: 86.2º.....65.6º.....75.9º (through 8/29)

100º+ High Temps
2010: 0
2011: 1 (101º on July 21st)

90-99º High Temps
2010 June/July/August/Total: 3.....9.....13.....25
2011 June/July/August/Total: 5.....14.....6.....25 (through 8/29)

80-89º High Temps
2010 June/July/August/Total: 21....19....17....57
2011 June/July/August/Total: 16....15....20....51 (through 8/29)

70-79º High Temps
2010 June/July/August/Total: 6.......3......1....10
2011 June/July/August/Total: 8.......1......3....12 (through 8/29)

60-69º High Temps
2010: 0
2011: 1 (68º on June 24th)

70-79º Low Temps
2010 June/July/August/Total: 4.....9.......9.....22
2011 June/July/August/Total: 4.....13.....5.....22 (through 8/30)

60-69º Low Temps
2010 June/July/August/Total: 22....19....18....59
2011 June/July/August/Total: 19....17....17....53 (through 8/30)

50-59º Low Temps
2010 June/July/August/Total: 4.......3......4....11
2011 June/July/August/Total: 7.......1......8....16 (through 8/30)

Total Precipitation
2010 June/July/August/Total: 9.58"....4.00"....2.15"....15.73"
2011 June/July/August/Total: 6.49"....3.37"....4.90"....14.76" (through 8/29)

Days with 1.00" or more rainfall
2010 June/July/August/Total: 3.......0......0......3
2011 June/July/August/Total: 2.......1......2......5 (through 8/29)

Days with 0.01" or more rainfall
2010 June/July/August/Total: 17....14......7.....38
2011 June/July/August/Total: 14......6......9.....29 (through 8/29)

Greatest calendar day rainfall
2010: 2.36" (June 22nd)
2011: 3.14" (June 20th) 

Labor Day Weekend Outlook

A sneak peak at the upcoming Labor Day weekend. Looks like Saturday will be warm with temps around 90º with a chance of thunderstorms....Sunday continues with chances of thunderstorms with temps in the 80's....Monday looks dry and cool with temps in the 70's.

Another Round Of Heat

Looks like the Thursday through Saturday period this week will feature another round of high heat and humidity. Temperatures look to be in the low to mid 90's for all three days. Thereafter, we look to cool back down to seasonable levels, especially by early next week.

7 Day Forecast For Lafayette

Seasonable temps through the first part of the week before warmth and humidity make a return. Chances for rainfall also increase starting Wednesday through next weekend. Looking past Saturday, things look to cool off.

From the NWS...

Today: Sunny, with a high near 77. North wind between 8 and 11 mph. 

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm. 

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 80. Calm wind. 

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 56. Calm wind. 

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 82. South southwest wind between 3 and 6 mph. 

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. 

Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. 

Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. 

Thursday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 92. 

Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly clear, with a low around 72. 

Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 94. 

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. 

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. 

Hurricane Irene Makes Landfall

Irene made landfall this morning, as a category 1 hurricane, near Cape Lookout, NC.

National Hurricane Center website on Irene: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/110013.shtml?3-daynl?large#contents

Latest On Hurricane Irene

Follow it here at NHC:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/110013.shtml?3-daynl?large#contents

Storm Reports And Rainfall Totals From Yesterday

Rainfall totals from yesterday:

West Lafayette 5.1 WSW: 0.53"
Lafayette 2.2 NE: 0.65"
LAF: 0.76"
Lafayette 2.2 S: 0.93"

Storm reports:

0840 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAFAYETTE               40.41N 86.87W
08/24/2011                   TIPPECANOE         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN FOOT TO FOOT AND HALF IN DIAMETER

0840 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E LAFAYETTE           40.41N 86.85W
08/24/2011                   TIPPECANOE         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 INCH DIAMETER LIMBS REPORTED DOWN

0846 PM     TSTM WND GST     LAFAYETTE               40.41N 86.87W
08/24/2011  E60.00 MPH       TIPPECANOE         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0857 PM     HAIL             ROSSVILLE               40.42N 86.60W
08/24/2011  M1.75 INCH       CLINTON            IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

0857 PM     HAIL             2 E ROSSVILLE           40.42N 86.56W
08/24/2011  M1.00 INCH       CLINTON            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0857 PM     HAIL             1 W ROSSVILLE           40.42N 86.61W
08/24/2011  M1.00 INCH       CLINTON            IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

0900 PM     HAIL             2 NE LAFAYETTE          40.43N 86.84W
08/24/2011  M1.00 INCH       TIPPECANOE         IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

Rainfall Amounts From Yesterday

Lafayette 2.2 NE: 0.36"
LAF: 0.43"
Lafayette 2.2 S: 0.43"
West Lafayette 5.1 WSW: 0.47"

Severe Weather Threat For Today

SPC has Lafayette under a slight risk for severe weather for tonight. Damaging winds and hail being the primary threats.

Day 1 outlook: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Severe Weather Threat For Today And Tomorrow

The Storm Prediction Center has Lafayette under a slight risk for severe weather for both today and tomorrow. Main threats are damaging winds and hail.

Outlooks found here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Hurricane Irene

For up to date information regarding Hurricane Irene, visit the National Hurricane Center website:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

24 Hour Rainfall Totals

24 hour totals through 9AM this morning:

LAF: 0.35"
Lafayette 2.2 S: 0.08"
Lafayette 2.2 NE: 0.33"
West Lafayette 5.1 WSW: 0.78"

Chance Of Thunderstorms Today...Nice Tomorrow

Forecast for Lafayette from the NWS...

Today: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. South southwest wind between 3 and 9 mph. 

Tonight: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. West southwest wind between 5 and 8 mph. 

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Northwest wind between 3 and 11 mph. 

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. North wind between 6 and 9 mph becoming calm. 

Drought Monitor Update

Rainfall totals/departures across central Indiana from June 1st through August 18th:

Indianapolis: 7.00" (-3.62")
Terre Haute: 7.27" (-3.78")
Muncie: 9.06" (-1.87")
Indianapolis Eagle Creek: 9.07" (-1.30")
Bloomington: 9.49" (-2.18")
Lafayette: 13.21" (+3.15")

Warmer With A Chance Of Storms

It will be warmer, more humid, and potentially stormy the next 5 days including today. Here's the forecast from the NWS for Lafayette...

Today: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Light west southwest wind.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. 

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Light and variable wind. 

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Calm wind. 

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming north northeast around 6 mph. 

Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. 

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. 

2nd Wettest Spring On Record At The WL COOP

I recently found the updated rainfall totals for the West Lafayette COOP on the Utah Climate Center website. According to the records I have for the WL COOP, Spring 2011 (Mar 1-May 31) was the 2nd wettest on record at that site.

Records since 1901

1) 19.46" - 1927
2) 18.19" - 2011
3) 17.18" - 1929
4) 17.06" - 1943
5) 16.28" - 1974
6) 16.15" - 1952
7) 15.67" - 1998
8) 15.66" - 1909
9) 15.41" - 1957
10) 14.54" - 1945

Latest 6 To 10 And 8 To 14 Day Outlooks

Looks like average to below average temperatures in the extended, according to the Climate Prediction Center .

Media And Weather

It really is shame sometimes how the media (print and TV) can give incorrect information. Regarding the tragedy at the Indiana State Fair, the Journal & Courier today has a story up about the timeline of events that night. http://www.jconline.com/article/20110815/NEWS/108150323/From-watch-warning-30-minutes The headline reads "From watch to warning in 30 minutes"...and opens with this:

A timeline provided Sunday by the Indiana State Police, shows that Marion County went from being under a severe thunderstorm watch starting at 8:09 p.m. to a severe thunderstorm warning at 8:39 p.m.

That is in fact wrong. The severe thunderstorm watch for Marion County was issued at 6:00PM, not 8:09PM as the first paragraph states.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 777
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   600 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 600 PM
   UNTIL 100 AM EDT.
   
   HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
   STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
   TERRE HAUTE INDIANA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MUNCIE
   INDIANA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 775...WW 776...
   
   DISCUSSION...BROKEN PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO TRACK
   EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL IL AND WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
   INDIANA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS
   THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND A
   COUPLE OR SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. TAIL-END
   STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL IL WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO
   TRACK SEWD INTO SECTIONS OF SW IND LATER TODAY BUT COULD REMAIN A
   THREAT FOR SEVERE WELL AFTER DARK GIVEN THE POSSIBLE ENHNCMNT FROM
   THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION BEING FORECAST ACROSS THE
   MIDWEST.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
   A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION
   VECTOR 29025.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 777
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   600 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 777 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT
   FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
   
   INC005-011-013-021-027-031-035-055-057-059-063-065-071-079-081-
   083-093-095-097-101-105-107-109-119-121-133-135-139-145-153-165-
   167-140500-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0777.110813T2200Z-110814T0500Z/
   
   IN 
   .    INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   BARTHOLOMEW          BOONE               BROWN               
   CLAY                 DAVIESS             DECATUR             
   DELAWARE             GREENE              HAMILTON            
   HANCOCK              HENDRICKS           HENRY               
   JACKSON              JENNINGS            JOHNSON             
   KNOX                 LAWRENCE            MADISON             
   MARION               MARTIN              MONROE              
   MONTGOMERY           MORGAN              OWEN                
   PARKE                PUTNAM              RANDOLPH            
   RUSH                 SHELBY              SULLIVAN            
   VERMILLION           VIGO                
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IND...

Amazing how things can be missed despite the timeline further down in the article showing that 6:00PM was indeed the watch issuance time. There is no doubt that blame is being spread around for this accident, but lets get the facts straight for once. Watch and warning terminology seem to be difficult to understand for a good number of the general public, let alone weather overall...no need to state incorrect facts especially in light of a high profile case.  

Severe Weather From Last Night

Quite a few reports of hail and some wind damage across Tippecanoe County from last night's thunderstorms. Officially, a 59 MPH gust was recorded at the airport, along with 0.84" of rainfall.

Thoughts and prayers to all involved in the tragic event at the Indiana State Fairgrounds last night.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1148 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     HAIL             8 NW LAFAYETTE          40.49N 86.98W
08/13/2011  M1.00 INCH       TIPPECANOE         IN   AMATEUR RADIO

0720 PM     HAIL             5 SE OTTERBEIN          40.44N 87.03W
08/13/2011  E0.75 INCH       TIPPECANOE         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0723 PM     HAIL             3 WNW WEST LAFAYETTE    40.46N 86.96W
08/13/2011  E0.25 INCH       TIPPECANOE         IN   AMATEUR RADIO

0725 PM     HAIL             5 NW LAFAYETTE          40.47N 86.94W
08/13/2011  E0.75 INCH       TIPPECANOE         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0725 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 WSW CLARKS HILL       40.22N 86.79W
08/13/2011  E60.00 MPH       TIPPECANOE         IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

0725 PM     HAIL             WEST LAFAYETTE          40.44N 86.91W
08/13/2011  M0.75 INCH       TIPPECANOE         IN   AMATEUR RADIO

0725 PM     HAIL             3 NW WEST LAFAYETTE     40.48N 86.95W
08/13/2011  E0.50 INCH       TIPPECANOE         IN   AMATEUR RADIO

0727 PM     TSTM WND GST     LAFAYETTE               40.41N 86.87W
08/13/2011  E50.00 MPH       TIPPECANOE         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0727 PM     HAIL             WEST LAFAYETTE          40.44N 86.91W
08/13/2011  E0.75 INCH       TIPPECANOE         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0728 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BATTLE GROUND           40.51N 86.84W
08/13/2011                   TIPPECANOE         IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN...NO SIZE AVAILABLE

0729 PM     TSTM WND GST     LAFAYETTE               40.41N 86.87W
08/13/2011  M59.00 MPH       TIPPECANOE         IN   ASOS

0730 PM     HAIL             1 S LAFAYETTE           40.40N 86.87W
08/13/2011  U1.00 INCH       TIPPECANOE         IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEST LAFAYETTE          40.44N 86.91W
08/13/2011                   TIPPECANOE         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN 3-4 INCHES IN DIAMETER

0731 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BATTLE GROUND           40.51N 86.84W
08/13/2011                   TIPPECANOE         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN. PEA SIZED HAIL. ESTIMATED WINDS OF 60
            MPH.

0732 PM     HAIL             WEST LAFAYETTE          40.44N 86.91W
08/13/2011  M0.75 INCH       TIPPECANOE         IN   AMATEUR RADIO

0734 PM     HAIL             LAFAYETTE               40.41N 86.87W
08/13/2011  M0.75 INCH       TIPPECANOE         IN   AMATEUR RADIO

0734 PM     HAIL             LAFAYETTE               40.41N 86.87W
08/13/2011  E0.50 INCH       TIPPECANOE         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0737 PM     HAIL             DAYTON                  40.38N 86.78W
08/13/2011  U1.75 INCH       TIPPECANOE         IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

0741 PM     HAIL             DAYTON                  40.38N 86.78W
08/13/2011  M0.50 INCH       TIPPECANOE         IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            INTERSTATE 65 OVERPASS AND 200 SOUTH

Rainfall Since June 28th

Moderate drought conditions have developed to our south according to the weekly drought monitor: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DM_midwest.htm

Rainfall totals and departures since July 1st across central Indiana...

Lafayette (LAF): 5.88" (+0.64")

Muncie (MIE): 4.28" (-1.39")

Terre Haute (HUF): 2.62" (-3.43")

Bloomington (BMG): 2.47" (-3.72")

Indianapolis Eagle Creek (EYE): 2.17" (-3.21")

Indianapolis (IND): 0.78" (-4.99")

Weekend Outlook

Chances for rain exist this weekend with Saturday looking like the wettest day. Temperatures to remain comfortable though. Here's the forecast for Lafayette from the NWS.

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Calm wind becoming south between 4 and 7 mph. 

Tonight: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. South southeast wind between 3 and 5 mph. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. 

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 79. Calm wind becoming south between 6 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. 

Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Southwest wind at 6 mph becoming northwest. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. 

Sunday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Northwest wind between 3 and 10 mph. 

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. 

First Sub 80º High Temperature Since July 1st

The high temperature was 79º at LAF yesterday, the first sub 80º high temperature since July 1st (74º). That also breaks a streak of 39 consecutive days with high temps of 80º or higher for Lafayette.

Nice Weather On Tap For The Next 7 Days

Forecast for Lafayette from the NWS...

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. North northwest wind between 7 and 9 mph. 

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. North wind around 6 mph becoming calm. 

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 82. Calm wind becoming west northwest around 6 mph. 

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm. 

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Southeast wind around 6 mph. 

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. 

Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. 

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. 

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 60. 

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 82. 

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 63. 

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 84. 

Mesoscale Discussion...Watch Likely

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1914
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1217 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL IL...IND...WRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 091717Z - 091815Z
   
   AN INCREASING THREAT OF DMGG WIND AND HAIL IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
   AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   17Z VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A CU FIELD BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FROM
   NEAR CHICAGO JUST NW OF SPRINGFIELD...ALONG A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
   ANALYZED THROUGH WRN MI/SWWD JUST WEST OF SPRINGFIELD IL...INTO
   CNTRL KS. USING PREFRONTAL OBS AND MODIFYING THE UPSTREAM 12Z
   DAVENPORT SOUNDING...LITTLE TO IF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS.
   CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
   IN COMBINATION WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...IN
   ADDITION TO ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT CAN DEVELOP. 17Z WV IMAGERY
   ALSO SUGGESTS HINTS OF A WEAK VORT MAX NEAR THE MO/IA/IL
   BORDER...WHICH LENDS CERTAINTY TO INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN
   IL/NRN IND. RECENT HI-RES MODEL IMAGERY GENERALLY SUPPORTS
   INITIATION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. COLD TEMPERATURES
   ALOFT...LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN
   THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND STRONG WNWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
   THREAT OF DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP/INTENSIFY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 08/09/2011

Slight Risk For Severe Weather Added For Today

The Storm Prediction Center updated their day 1 outlook and has put us in a slight risk for severe weather this afternoon/evening.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Their discussion...

...IL/IND/OH...
   A RATHER STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
   NORTHERN IL AND INTO WESTERN LOWER MI.  RESIDUAL DEWPOINTS IN THE
   MID 60S AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...COUPLED WITH FULL
   SUNSHINE...WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND
   STEEP LAPSE RATES.  MOST MODELS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF
   CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL IL...ACROSS IND...INTO OH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
    THE ENVIRONMENT IN THIS REGION WOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF HAIL AND
   GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGER CELLS.

Rainfall Totals From Monday

Purdue airport - LAF
Monday rainfall: 1.42"
August rainfall: 2.51"
Rainfall since June 1st: 12.37"


CoCoRahs reports: http://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/StateDailyPrecipReports.aspx?state=IN
West Lafayette 5.1 SW: 2.13"
West Lafayette 2.7 NW: 1.12"
Lafayette 2.2 NE: 0.86"
Lafayette 2.2 S: 1.18"
Otterbein 2.3 SE: 1.11"
West Lafayette 4.9 W: 1.46"

Thunderstorms Tonight

Had another good round of thunderstorms tonight. A couple of reports of hail and some wind damage across portions of Lafayette. Here at my place I had pretty good winds and pea size hail...second day in a row of seeing hail. 1.30" of rainfall was recorded at the Purdue airport. Here's a shot I took as the storms we're approaching. It looked like a wall cloud with a bit of rotation to it.

Severe Thunderstorm Threat For Today

Lafayette is under a slight risk for severe weather today/tonight.

Here's the day one convective outlook from SPC: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Summer Rainfall Totals

Since June 1st, 10.95" of rainfall has been recorded at LAF. Here's the rainfall totals at other sites across Indiana.

Rainfall totals and departures from June 1 through August 7

Evansville...13.51" (+5.15")
Lafayette...10.95" (+2.12")
Bloomington...8.45" (-2.14")
South Bend...8.31" (-0.49")
Terre Haute...7.24" (-2.78")
Shelbyville...6.88" (-2.87")
Muncie...6.85" (-2.97")
Indianapolis...6.49" (-3.05")
Fort Wayne...4.71" (-4.55")

Very Active Thunderstorms

67 MPH gust measured at the Purdue airport, along with 1.00" of rainfall in one hour. I had pea size hail here at my place.

METAR KLAF 071854Z 01005KT 3SM TS HZ BKN043 24/21 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 30058/1834 WSHFT 1823 LTG DSNT E AND SE RAB13E50 SLP070 P0100 T02390206 $

Torrential Rains This Afternoon

LAF obs...

Heavy Thunderstorm Rain Mist

Temperature

73 °F

Feels Like 73 °F

Needing Rainfall

Looking at the radar at noon today, there are storms firing to the north of here...but looks like they will remain a miss. Still a chance of storms this afternoon, but I'm not confident...

Abnormally dry conditions exist for a good chunk of the state of Indiana: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DM_state.htm?IN,MW

Thunderstorms Today And Tomorrow?

There's a chance of thunderstorms for both today and tomorrow. But you know the drill, it may happen...it may not. Summertime thunderstorms are pretty fickle...

The Storm Prediction Center currently has us under a slight risk for severe weather for both days, which can be found here: Severe Weather Outlooks

Record Setter: Indianapolis Breaks The 90º+ Streak

From the Indianapolis NWS:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
550 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011

...INDIANAPOLIS HITS 90 DEGREES AND BREAKS RECORD...

THE OFFICIAL TEMPERATURE AT INDIANAPOLIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HIT
90 DEGREES TODAY...WHICH MAKES A RECORD SETTING 20 DAYS OF 90
DEGREES OR HIGHER. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 19 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS IN AUGUST 1936. CONSISTENT CLOUD COVER TODAY HINDERED THE
CHANCES OF BREAKING THE RECORD BUT BREAKS DEVELOPED IN THE CLOUDS
SHORTLY PAST 5 PM...ALLOWING ADDITIONAL HEATING TO RAISE THE
TEMPERATURE TO 90 DEGREES AT 508 PM.

$$

HEROLD

Weekend Outlook

Weekend forecast for Lafayette from the NWS calls for warm temperatures and chances of thunderstorms.

Today: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. East southeast wind between 3 and 5 mph. 
Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Light east southeast wind. 

Saturday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. 
Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Light north northwest wind. 

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming west southwest between 8 and 11 mph.
Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.

90º+ Streak Marches On For Indy

Have to hand it to Indianapolis, as they overachieved today and reached 90º(91º to be exact) to tie 1936 for the longest 90º+ streak in their recorded history. If today is any indication, tomorrow looks like a near lock to be the record setter.

From the Indianapolis NWS office:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
244 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2011

...RECORD CONSECUTIVE 90 DEGREE DAY STREAK TIED AT INDIANAPOLIS...

AT 225 PM EDT...THE TEMPERATURE AT INDIANAPOLIS REACHED 90
DEGREES. THIS MARKS THE 19TH CONSECUTIVE DAY THAT TEMPERATURES
HAVE MADE IT TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK AT INDIANAPOLIS...WHICH TIES
THE ALL TIME RECORD STREAK OF 19 DAYS INITIALLY SET IN AUGUST
1936.

TEMPERATURES REACHED 90 DEGREES FROM THE 8TH TO THE 26TH OF AUGUST
IN 1936. THE FOURTH LONGEST STREAK OF 90 DEGREE DAYS ALSO OCCURRED
IN THE SUMMER OF 1936...WITH 15 CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

THE CURRENT STRETCH OF 90 DEGREE DAYS BEGAN ON JULY 17TH...AND
INCLUDED THE FIRST 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURE IN 23 YEARS ON JULY
21ST.

WEATHER RECORDS BEGAN AT INDIANAPOLIS IN 1871.

$$

NIELD

90º+ Streak Coming To An End For Indianapolis?

Highs today are only expected to reach the mid to upper 80's for Indianapolis. If that happens, their 90º+ streak will come to an end at 18 days...one shy of tying the record.

Summer Hot Weather Statistics From The NWS

Indianapolis Area
Top 10 Occurrences of Consecutive Days with
Maximum Temperature 90 degrees F or higher
Years: 1871-2011

Rank  # Days   End Date
 1     19    8/26/1936

 2     18    8/ 3/2011, 7/30/1901

 4     15    7/17/1936 
 5     14    8/13/2007, 7/24/1983, 7/20/1980, 7/ 6/1966 
 9     13    8/30/1983, 7/31/1940